Thursday, October 04, 2007

Doing the Math Democrats Just Won't (or Can't) Do.

What with the hoopla over SCHIP expansion being vetoed, I think it is a good idea to parse the numbers a bit and see just exactly where we stand. According to this article by the Business and Media Institute, the oft quoted "40-50 million uninsured" simply do not exist, at least not in the context they are portrayed to exist. The lion's share of that number are uninsured by choice or are here illegally and have no right to government sponsored health insurance (not that anyone does, but certainly not people here illegally) anyway.

Let us do the math shall we? Let's pick a number in the middle of the range for the purposes of our discussion, say 45 million.

Between 10 and 20 million people are here illegally, possibly more. They obviously do not count since they have no legal claim on government subsidies, so lets delete them right off the bat shall we? Again, picking the midline of 15 million gives us:

45-15=30 million

Of that remaining 30 million about 17 million make more than $50,000 a year and therefore should be able to afford some level of medical insurance. Half of that number make more than $75,000 a year. But for one reason or another they have chosen to forgo insurance. Likely as not because they are young and healthy and think they are immortal.

30-17=13 million

Of the remaining 13 million, about 5 million qualify for some form of government assistance, but fail to take advantage of it for one reason or another.

13-5=8 million

The true number of uninsured at any given time is 8 million, but that too is misleading. 45% of uninsured people are uninsured for less than two months, usually due to job transitions, so of the 8 million, 3.6 will be reinsured within the 90 day HIIPA act re-insurance window that precludes exceptions due to pre-existing conditions.

8-3.6=4.4 million

This is the true number of people that are chronically uninsured due to financial hardship. Less than one tenth the quoted number. That is less than 1.5% of the US population.

3 Comments:

Blogger TxGoodie said...

Excellent! And darn near clear enough for even ME to understand!

October 04, 2007 10:32 AM  
Anonymous Thinker said...

Correct, and make is in simply one sentence.... I got a public education!

October 04, 2007 12:52 PM  
Blogger The Dude said...

Ror,

Why try to apply reality to hyberbole? Just use the standard "women and minorities hardest hit" line and you too can win elections and arguments. It seems a few people that call themsleves Republicans these days have discovered that principle as well.

October 05, 2007 7:33 AM  

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